EARLY STUDIES

AgendaSmoke Signals

Apr 9

At the Top:

Vapes ranks highest at 46.2%, followed by Cigarettes at 35.3% and Hand-rolled cigarettes at 29.3%

On the Up:

Unable to determine increases/decreases as this is the first survey in the sequence

In the Future:

Nicotine pouches is projected to increase by 2.8%, while Cigarettes is projected to decrease by 4.4%

Vapes Rank Highest

Which of these products do people in your social circle use?

The latest data reveals an interesting pattern in tobacco and nicotine product usage. Vapes lead among products at 46.2%, establishing a significant preference for electronic nicotine delivery systems. Traditional cigarettes follow as the second most common product at 35.3%, showing the continued relevance of conventional smoking methods. Hand-rolled cigarettes demonstrate substantial usage at 29.3%, potentially reflecting cost-consciousness or preference for customisation. Abstention is notable, with "None of the above" reported by 42.6% of respondents, suggesting a large proportion avoid tobacco products entirely. The remaining products show considerably lower prevalence, with snus at 6.0% being the most common among these niche offerings. Nicotine pouches are reported at 4.8%, indicating modest adoption of this newer alternative delivery system. Shisha usage stands at 4.4%, suggesting some preference for waterpipe tobacco consumption. Cigars and heated tobacco products both register at 2.4%, demonstrating limited but existing interest in these premium or novel products. Snuff appears at 1.6%, while chewing tobacco shows minimal presence at 0.8%. Notably, cigarillos and pipes register no measurable usage at all (0.0%), indicating these traditional forms have fallen out of favour. Looking ahead to future projections, respondents anticipate a decline in cigarette usage (to 30.9%) and hand-rolled cigarettes (to 25.3%), suggesting an expected shift away from traditional smoking. Vapes are also projected to decrease slightly to 43.0%, while nicotine pouches are anticipated to rise to 7.6%, potentially indicating evolving preferences toward newer nicotine delivery systems. Overall, the data presents a tobacco landscape dominated by vaping and traditional cigarettes, with a substantial proportion abstaining entirely, and suggesting gradual shifts toward newer alternative products may continue in the future.

Apr 16

At the Top:

Vapes ranks highest at 38.3%, followed by Cigarettes at 28.2% and Hand-rolled cigarettes at 14.9%

On the Up:

Cigarillos increased by 0.8% from last week, while Hand-rolled cigarettes decreased by 14.4%

In the Future:

Nicotine pouches are projected to increase by 1.2%, while Cigarettes are projected to decrease by 1.6%

Projected Nicotine Pouch Rise

Which of these products do people in your social circle use?

The latest data reveals a notable pattern in tobacco and nicotine product usage. Vapes lead among products at 38.3%, though this represents a significant decline of 7.9% from the previous week. Traditional cigarettes follow as the second most common product at 28.2%, showing a substantial decrease of 7.1% compared to the 09/04 data. Hand-rolled cigarettes have experienced a dramatic fall to 14.9%, dropping by 14.4% from the prior week, potentially reflecting shifting preferences away from manually prepared tobacco. Abstention is particularly prominent, with "None of the above" reported by 50.8% of respondents, suggesting a majority avoid tobacco products entirely—an increase of 8.2% from the previous week. The remaining products show considerably lower prevalence across the board. Nicotine pouches register at 4.0%, a slight decrease from the previous week. Snus shows similar modest usage at 4.8%, having declined slightly from 6.0%. Other products demonstrate minimal presence: cigars (1.2%), shisha (1.2%), snuff (0.8%), cigarillos (0.8%), pipes (0.8%), heated tobacco products (0.8%), and chewing tobacco (0.4%). The overall landscape appears to show a broad decline in tobacco product usage across nearly all categories when compared to the previous week, with abstention becoming the predominant response. Looking ahead to future projections, respondents anticipate further declines in cigarette usage (to 26.6%) and hand-rolled cigarettes (to 15.3%), continuing the observed downward trend. Vapes are projected to decrease to 35.9%, maintaining the pattern of declining electronic nicotine delivery system usage. The data presents a tobacco landscape with notably decreasing consumption trends and a majority now indicating abstention—a pattern expected to continue into the future.

Apr 23

At the Top:

Vapes ranks highest at 34.3%, followed by Cigarettes at 27.8% and Hand-rolled cigarettes at 17.7%

On the Up:

Shisha increased by 6.1% from last week, while Vapes decreased by 4.0%

In the Future:

Cigars is projected to increase by 1.6%, while Hand-rolled cigarettes is projected to decrease by 4.0%

Cigars Project to Increase

Which of these products do people in your social circle use?

Tobacco and nicotine consumption patterns show notable shifts in the most recent data. Vapes continue to lead among products at 34.3%, despite showing a decline of 4.0% from the previous week and representing a substantial drop of 11.9% since 09/04. Traditional cigarettes maintain their position as the second most common product at 27.8%, showing a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous week. Hand-rolled cigarettes have experienced a modest resurgence to 17.7%, rising by 2.8% since 16/04, potentially reflecting cost-consciousness amidst economic pressures. Abstention remains significant, with "None of the above" reported by 48.0% of respondents, suggesting nearly half avoid tobacco products entirely, though this represents a decline of 2.8% from the previous week. Several niche products have shown unexpected growth, with shisha usage increasing substantially to 7.3% (up 6.1% from the previous week), possibly indicating a growing social dimension to tobacco consumption. Cigars have also seen noteworthy growth, more than tripling from 1.2% to 4.4%, which might suggest increased celebratory or luxury consumption. Nicotine pouches hold steady at 4.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.4%. Traditional pipes and chewing tobacco have emerged from near-zero usage to 3.6% and 3.2% respectively, potentially indicating a niche revival of traditional tobacco products. Heated tobacco products have also increased to 3.6%, while snuff and snus show modest growth to 2.0% and 2.4%. Cigarillos have increased to 2.4%, continuing the trend of growth in premium tobacco products. The overall picture suggests a complex landscape where traditional tobacco products are showing resilience and even modest growth in some categories, while the previously dominant vaping trend continues to decline. Looking ahead, future projections indicate a continued expected decline in cigarette usage (to 23.8%) and hand-rolled cigarettes (to 13.7%), suggesting respondents anticipate further shifts away from traditional smoking.

Apr 30

At the Top:

Vapes ranks highest at 42.3%, followed by cigarettes at 35.9% and hand-rolled cigarettes at 20.2%

On the Up:

Shisha increased by 4.4% from last week, while cigarettes increased by 8.1%

In the Future:

Heated tobacco product projected to increase by 2.8%, while cigarettes decrease by 8.9%

Vapes Lead Cigarettes

Which of these products do people in your social circle use?

The 30/04/2025 data shows vapes dominating at 42.3%, increasing 8.1% from the previous week, while cigarettes follow at 35.9%, also up 8.1%. Hand-rolled cigarettes maintain third position at 20.2%, continuing their gradual recovery trend since mid-April. Shisha usage grew remarkably to 11.7%, nearly doubling since mid-April. Nicotine pouches remain steady at 10.1%, with cigars showing consistent growth to 8.1%. The proportion reporting no tobacco use fell to 40.3%, the lowest level in April. Heated tobacco products continued upward to 4.4%, whilst snuff increased to 3.6%. Pipe smoking maintained at 3.2%, with chewing tobacco declining slightly to 2.4%. Cigarillos showed dramatic volatility, dropping to 0.4% from 2.4% the previous week. Future projections indicate vapes maintaining leadership at 41.1%, whilst cigarette usage is expected to decline to 27.0%, an 8.9% decrease. Heated tobacco products show the largest projected growth from 4.4% to 7.3%, a 2.8% increase, suggesting growing consumer interest. Shisha is projected to decrease by 2.0%. These projections suggest shifting perceptions around different nicotine delivery systems, with novel products gaining market share at the expense of traditional combustibles. The data reveals significant weekly volatility across product categories during April, with notable rebounds in traditional products by month-end. The overall trend indicates diversification in tobacco product preferences, with both traditional and emerging categories showing dynamic movement. This cyclical pattern may reflect reporting inconsistencies or genuine consumption fluctuations. The substantial week-on-week decrease in non-users represents a notable shift warranting continued monitoring. Mid-tier products collectively demonstrate the multi-faceted nature of tobacco consumption, suggesting ongoing experimentation with alternative delivery systems. These patterns align with broader market trends showing the gradual adoption of alternatives.

May 7

At the Top:

Vapes ranks highest at 38.9%, followed by cigarettes at 29.9% and hand-rolled cigarettes at 15.2%

On the Up:

Chewing tobacco increased by 0.5% from last week, while cigarettes decreased by 6.0%

In the Future:

Cigarillos is projected to increase by 1.2%, while cigarettes is projected to decrease by 2.5%

Cigarettes to Drop by 2.5%

Which of these products do people in your social circle use?

The data from 7 May 2025 indicates vapes continue as the most prevalent nicotine product at 38.9%, maintaining their dominant position throughout the five-week observation period despite fluctuations. Traditional cigarettes register at 29.9%, consistently holding second place across all survey periods with usage ranging between 27.8% and 35.9%. Hand-rolled cigarettes at 15.2% complete the top three, though their popularity has shown a general downward trajectory from the initial measurement of 29.3% in early April. These three delivery methods collectively represent the primary nicotine consumption vehicles, with all other options consistently remaining below 12% throughout the observation period. In the mid-tier category, nicotine pouches (7.4%) show relative stability with minor fluctuations, while shisha (6.6%) demonstrates more variability, peaking at 11.7% in late April. Cigars (5.7%) have shown inconsistent usage patterns, reaching their highest point at 8.1% in late April but otherwise maintaining lower levels of adoption. The remaining products—chewing tobacco (2.9%), heated tobacco products (2.5%), snuff (2.1%), pipes (1.2%), and cigarillos (0.8%)—consistently occupy the lower tier across all survey periods, collectively representing less than 10% of usage and indicating their niche status. The proportion of respondents indicating no nicotine product usage stands at 46.7%, showing variability across the five-week period but generally remaining between 40% and 51%. Long-term projections suggest an expectation of declining usage across most products, with vapes anticipated to decrease slightly to 37.3%, continuing their market leadership but potentially indicating a plateau. Similarly, cigarettes are projected to decrease to 27.5%, representing a 2.5 percentage point drop from current levels and following a pattern of expected reduction that appears consistent across the five-week period.

May 14

At the Top:

Vapes ranks highest at 38.9%, followed by cigarettes at 29.9% and hand-rolled cigarettes at 15.2%

On the Up:

Chewing tobacco increased by 0.5% from last week, while cigarettes decreased by 6.0%

In the Future:

Cigarillos is projected to increase by 1.2%, while cigarettes is projected to decrease by 2.5%

Vapes Increase Lead

Which of these products do people in your social circle use?

The latest data shows that vapes continue to dominate as the most widely used tobacco/nicotine product at 34.5%, though showing a consistent downward trend since April 30th when usage peaked at 42.3%. Traditional cigarettes follow as the second most prevalent product at 24.4%, marking a significant 5.5 percentage point decrease from the previous week's 29.9%. Hand-rolled cigarettes rank third at 13.0%, continuing their gradual decline from earlier peaks. These three products consistently form the top tier across all survey periods, though their collective usage has diminished over recent weeks. Middle-tier products include nicotine pouches at 4.9%, showing the most dramatic weekly decline of any product, dropping 2.5 percentage points from 7.4% last week. Both shisha and heated tobacco products register identical usage at 3.7%, with heated tobacco products being the only item in this category to show a week-on-week increase, albeit modest at 1.2 percentage points. Cigars follow at 2.4%, reverting to early April levels after experiencing significantly higher usage during late April and early May. The lower tier consists of products with minimal usage, including snuff at 1.6%, chewing tobacco and cigarillos both at 0.8%, whilst pipes recorded 0.0%, the only product with no reported usage this week. When examining future projections, all products show limited variation between current and anticipated usage, suggesting stable consumption patterns. Notably, 52.9% of respondents indicated no usage of any listed products, the highest percentage recorded since mid-April, indicating a potential overall reduction in tobacco/nicotine consumption. This represents a 6.1 percentage point increase from the previous week, reinforcing the downward trend in tobacco product usage more broadly. Future projections show an even higher percentage (56.5%) anticipating no tobacco or nicotine product usage, suggesting continued decline.

We ask a nationally representative sample of UK citizens which nicotine product their social circle uses.

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